Tuesday, May 1, 2012

April was About Positioning, Nullifying Performance

My IRA was basically flat in April as I built up positions in Chesapeake Energy (Ticker CHK) as the stock declined. At the end of the month about 5.5% of my IRA was invested in CHK. Offsetting this decline was better performance by my ~30% position in the ETF Proshares Short S&P 500 (Ticker SH), which increased modestly as the index declined about 1.5% during the month.

I also exited all of my bond positions as the lack of liquidity became more concerning and I wanted to reduce my long positions as we approach June, a potential turn in the market in my view. My bearish view includes a worsening outlook for economic activity in Europe, a combination of potentially higher taxes and reduced government spending in the US starting in 2013, and on-going mis-allocation of resources in China producing a shock to the markets. As we enter the second half of 2012 I believe these issues begin to increasingly dominate market movements.

Besides the short positions and CHK, at the end of the month my exposure includes ~6% in commodities, ~10% equities, and ~49% cash.

On an annual basis, my IRA increased about 14.5%.