Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Kulicke and Soffa (ticker KLIC) - Is December Q the Bottom?

News Summary
Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC $6.37, down to $6.00 in the aftermarket) reported September quarter financial results of revenue of $259 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78 (non-GAAP was $0.89), versus the consensus estimates of $260 million and $0.82 for GAAP. FY10 actual GAAP EPS was $1.92.

Management had pre-announced on October 7 that revenue would be near $260 million. Guidance for the December quarter was revenue between $125 and $135 million (flat y/y), relative to the consensus estimates of $215 million. Management had made comments on October 7 that the revenue in the December quarter would be "significantly below" the September quarter due to softness in demand. Based on management's comments, I expect the December quarter GAAP EPS consensus estimate to move to around $0.20 and non-GAAP to move to around $0.28, both relatively flat y/y. The consensus GAAP EPS estimate for December is $0.55.

Currently the consensus revenue and GAAP EPS estimates for F11 are $756 million and $1.69, flat revenue growth and a 12% decline in EPS. We'll have to wait until the morning to hear any hints into how management foresees F2011 playing out. That said, the press release alluded to expected strengthening demand in the December quarter and unless the consensus FY11 EPS estimate drops below $0.60 (unlikely, in my view), KLIC will be trading on a single-digit P/E.

Investment Call
The morning conference call likely determines how weak the stock is tomorrow. That said, I will watch for signs that this may be a bottom for the stock.

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