Monday, January 3, 2011

Bought ~10% Position in VXZ

Bought ~10% position in Barclays Bank PLC iPath SP 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures (ticker VXZ) at $64.49.

The volatility index for the SP 500 is trading around $17.30, near the 52-week low. This low volatility suggests, at least to me, that the market has not priced in an appropriate amount of risk for unforeseen events. Indeed, in the Wall Street Journal today there is an article discussing investors' sunny outlook. I foresee three things that may shake this up:

(1) New members of Congress looking to shake things up, starting with a debate over the debt ceiling.
(2) Spotty earnings - Sure, sales looked reasonably good in December, but costs may have risen more. 
(3) Macro economic signals leading to speculation/ worries about Fed - Too hot = worries of rising interest rates; Too cold = worries of power to avoid double dip.

Not sure how it plays out, but the market just seems a little too sure of itself at the moment.

Description of VXZ
The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures Total Return Index. The index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the fourth month VIX futures contract into the seventh month VIX futures contract. 

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