Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Transports Foreshadowing Pullback? Sold GE.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been sliding for a couple days, under-performing the broad market. Typically the transports are a leading indicator of a slowing economy because fewer goods are moving around the country. It is only 2 days, but worth keeping an eye on as an early tell of the economy.

Sold my ~3% position in General Electric Corporation (Ticker GE). The stock has appreciated about 15% since I bought it in mid-October. I continue to move my IRA towards more conservative waters as my post on Sagflation suggests deflationary pressures are building. In addition, I believe there the potential growth inhibitors in the US of higher taxes, lower spending and falling liquidity over the next year provide the catalyst for a market correction. Of course, there is always European debt or Middle east unrest to send the market lower as well. GE has large international exposure, increasing the risk the company is hurt by events outside the US. The stock is reasonably prices at 12x this year's consensus EPS estimate, although I believe the 15% anticipated growth rate in 2013 is somewhat aggressive.

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